Alarming new data from Somalia shows that one million more people could be pushed into crisis levels of food insecurity in the coming months as drought conditions, conflict, and high food prices threaten to disrupt farming, restrict market access, and increase humanitarian needs.
The latest Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analysis shows that 3.4 million people are already experiencing crisis-levels of hunger or worse (IPC3+). This number is projected to rise to 4.4 million (almost one in every four people in Somalia) between April and June 2025, when below-average rains are forecast, potentially creating drought conditions.
Just three years ago – in late 2022 – Somalia was brought to the brink of famine by the longest drought in recorded history as back-to-back failed rainy seasons devasted the country. A massive scale up of humanitarian assistance from WFP and partners averted famine in late 2022. Hunger is rising again as another drought looms.
The IPC findings confirm that the erratic rainy season from October to December 2024 led to low crop yields, rapid depletion of pasture and water sources. Meanwhile earlier in the year flooding damaged crops and displaced hundreds of thousands of people. Food production in 2024 was 45 per cent below the long-term average. These are all factors that have contributed towards families’ rising vulnerability and add to WFP’s concern about what the coming months will bring for Somalia.
Around 1.7 million children under the age of five are expected to face acute malnutrition through December 2025. Of those, 466,000 face severe acute malnutrition. Nearly two-thirds (64 per cent) of the total malnutrition burden is concentrated in southern Somalia, where drought conditions and insecurity are the worst.
The hardest-hit households include those with low agricultural yields who have depleted their food stocks, internally displaced persons (IDPs), and pastoralists with limited livestock and below-average earnings from livestock sales.
As humanitarian needs grow, limited funding is resulting in life-saving programmes being reduced or cut altogether. From April, WFP will support 820,000 vulnerable people per month with food and cash assistance – down from a peak of 2.2 million reached monthly in 2024.
Funding shortfalls have also forced WFP to halve the number of students it supports with school meals. In Southwest State, Banadir, and Somaliland, school meals have been entirely suspended. The 2025 Somalia Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan calling for $1.42 billion is only 12.4 per cent funded. WFP alone has a funding gap of $297 million for the next six months, and without additional funding, critical WFP operations in Somalia will face pipeline breaks by mid-year.
Early action is critical to avert a crisis in Somalia. Funding is urgently required to scale up food assistance, nutrition support, water and sanitation services, and livelihood initiatives to mitigate the impacts of the expected drought in Somalia .Without this, Somalia could once again face deepening hunger.
