As the global transition to renewable energy accelerates, weather and climate insights are becoming increasingly important to ensure the reliability and resilience of energy systems and planning of electricity demand and supplies, according to a new report.
2023 Year in Review: Climate-driven Global Renewable Energy Potential Resources and Energy Demand finds that climate-informed and diversified energy solutions are essential if the world is to meet targets to triple renewable energy capacity and double energy efficiency by 2030.
The report was jointly produced by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), and the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), operated by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF).
“Whether it is solar power generation in drier-than-average conditions, wind power generation in regions experiencing shifts from La Niña to El Niño conditions, or hydropower generation in the face of fluctuating precipitation patterns, climate has a direct bearing on both electricity supply and demand. Such challenges also present unprecedented opportunities: the integration of climate insights into energy planning yields more reliable power generation, helps anticipate seasonal peaks in demand and strengthens the adaptability of future infrastructure development,” write WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo, IRENA Director-General Francesco Camera and C3S Director Carlo Buontempo in a joint foreword.
The report looks at 2023 – a year which saw a transition from a La Niña to an El Niño phenomenon, affecting key climatic variables for the energy sector, such as wind speed, solar radiation, precipitation, and temperature. It was also the warmest year on record until this record was broken again in 2024. It was released ahead of the Sustainable Energy for All Global Forum in Barbados on 12-13 March.
Highlights
Key energy indicators – wind, solar, hydropower, and energy demand – exhibited significant geographic variability in 2023 compared to the long-term climate average (1991-2020). Driven by drier and warmer El Niño conditions, South America experienced a 3.9% increase in solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity factor (CF), leading to an estimated 3.5 TWh/year of additional generation from the region’s 50 GW installed capacity. Similarly, East Asia saw a 4.1% positive anomaly in wind power, generating an estimated 45 TWh from its 420 GW of installed onshore capacity, with 95% of this in China.
Climate-informed energy planning: The report illustrates the potential applications of seasonal forecasts as a valuable tool for energy planning and management. Seasonal climate forecasts empower stakeholders to anticipate supply–demand fluctuations, optimize grid operations, and enhance energy system resilience. They also enable better preparation for extreme weather events, ensuring energy security and minimizing disruptions.
Policy implications for achieving 2030 targets: Diversified energy portfolios, combining wind, solar, and hydropower with emerging technologies such as geothermal and storage, are essential to mitigate the impact of climate variability and change on renewable power generation and management.
Regional collaboration and localized solutions will also play a key role in balancing supply–demand dynamics, optimizing cross-border energy flows, and building resilient energy infrastructures.
Comprehensive energy data collection and sharing are vital for advancing the understanding of climate variability’s impacts on energy supply and demand. Adopting a climate-informed, collaborative approach will accelerate progress toward a sustainable, net-zero future, says the report. It also recommends the creation of new market structures to account for the flexibility of new and clean power systems.
Despite abundant renewable energy resources, Africa accounts for only 2% of the global installed capacity. By integrating resource potential with climate information, countries can effectively develop renewable energy infrastructure to support industrialization and economic growth, accelerating sustainable development across the continent. Achieving the 1.5 °C climate target necessitates substantial increases in renewable energy capacities by 2030 and 2050.
Wind power installed capacity surpassed 1,000 GW in 2023, a 13% increase compared with 2022. Solar power has been growing considerably faster than wind power, with an installed capacity reaching 1,420 GW in 2023, a 32% increase compared with 2022. Hydropower has grown slightly, with an installed capacity of about 1,410 GW in 2023, an increase of 1% compared with 2022.
Wind power capacity is projected to reach approximately 3 000 GW by 2030 and 8 000 GW by 2050, solar power capacity is expected to expand to about 5 400 GW by 2030 and 18 000 GW by 2050, and hydropower capacity is anticipated to grow to 1 500 GW by 2030 and 2 500 GW by 2050.
These figures are consistent with the targets established in the UAE Consensus during COP28 in 2023, which emphasized the need to triple RE capacity by 2030. Additionally, IRENA reported significant cost reductions in Renewable Energy technologies between 2010 and 2023, with solar energy costs decreasing by approximately 90% and wind energy costs by about 68%.
