There was no significant reduction in carbon emissions in the US in 2024, despite a record increase in renewable energy production and significant incentives to encourage the large-scale adoption of renewable technologies, such as electric vehicles. According to estimates by research company, the Rhodium Group, US carbon emissions fell by just 0.2% amidst surging demand for electricity and the recovery of road and air travel following the slowdown during the coronavirus pandemic.
Conversely, the economy expanded by 2.7%, weakening the link between economic growth and emissions. However, the reduction in carbon emissions in the US was far below the 1.9% reduction achieved in 2023, and 8% below the pre-pandemic levels in 2019.
This means the US is not on track to meet its 2030 carbon emissions reduction target of 50-52% under the Paris Agreement which seeks to limit the increase in global temperature to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels to protect the planet from the worst effects of climate change.
Emissions reduction of 1.8% in the industrial sector and 3.7% in the oil and gas segment of the US economy were responsible for the 2024 decline in greenhouse gas discharges, according to Rhodium Group researchers. In the industrial sector, reduced manufacturing activity and a record 12% decline in coal production – the lowest level in many years – were mainly responsible for the reduction in emissions. More coal energy plants have now been retired having lost a significant market share to renewable energy and natural gas.
While crude oil production increased by 2.4% last year, natural gas fell by 0.6% – a slightly bigger fall than in 2020 – as certain producers limited output by not drilling fresh wells in response to low natural gas prices. However, this reduction was in part offset by increased road and air travel. Carbon emissions from the transportation sector, which has been the leading source of greenhouse gas emissions since 2016, grew by 0.8% in 2024.
In the US, natural gas continues to be the biggest single source of power, accounting for 43% of the energy mix, statistics from the Rhodium Group show. So therefore the spike in emissions from increased natural gas use offset the minor declines in greenhouse gases from reduced coal power generation. Coal energy generation continued to decline – falling by 1% in 2024.
The researchers state that the US may have had a 1% increase in road traffic numbers across October last year compared to the same time in 2023, and that gasoline consumption rose in 2024, while the use of diesel continued to fall, almost reaching 2020 levels after a slight post-pandemic recovery. The fall in diesel consumption was due to reduced manufacturing activity and increased use of biofuels.
The emissions from the transportation sector could have even been higher without the growing adoption of non-gasoline cars. Analysis by the Rhodium Group shows that electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles accounted for almost 10% of all passenger vehicles and light truck sales last year. Similarly, traditional hybrid cars also constituted 10% of sales. Regardless of this spike in sales, however, electric cars and hybrids still account for only around 2% and 3% of all vehicles in the US, respectively.
A 3% rise in demand for electricity – the bulk of this coming from residential buildings – resulted in a 3% increase in power generation from wind, solar, and natural gas. Solar and wind constituted 16% of the energy mix and the increase in power generation from these two sources outstripped a 4% rise in natural gas production.
There was a 10% rise in cooling degree days which is a measure of weather-fueled demand for cooling that intensified energy use during the summer in 2024. Industrial power demand, which accounts for a tiny share of overall power use, grew by 2%, while energy demand from commercial buildings rose by less than 1%.
Although data centers are currently using a small amount of electricity, the International Energy Agency estimates that by 2030 they could account for between 4% and 10% of electricity consumption in the US.
To meet the goals of the Paris Agreement, countries need to substantially cut carbon emissions. As the second biggest carbon emissions emitter, the US has been implementing various climate action initiatives to meet carbon emissions reduction goals, including its recently set 61-66% greenhouse gas emissions reduction target by 2035.
However, following President Trump’s recent executive orders, which aim to withdraw the US from the Paris Agreement, increase fossil fuel production, and terminate programs that promote electric vehicle adoption and renewable energy production, these climate action initiatives are now at risk of being abandoned.
