Brazil is grappling with a sharp increase in wildfires during the worst drought recorded in the country since at least the 1950s. By September, more than 135,000 fire outbreaks had been reported, marking a 101% increase compared to the same period in 2023. The Amazon and Pantanal – two of Brazil’s most vital biomes – are experiencing their worst vegetation losses in at least two decades.
In the past month alone, the area affected by fires has expanded to 106,000 km², an 88% rise from the 56,000 km² recorded in August, according to MapBiomas data. A region the size of the United Kingdom has been scorched, with over 223,000 km² having been impacted – 133,000 km² more than in 2023, representing a 150% spike.
The majority (73%) of the burned areas this year were native vegetation, primarily forests, which account for one-fifth of the total affected regions. In agricultural areas, pastures were the most affected, with 46,000 km² being destroyed.
Over half (51%) of the burned territory in the first nine months of 2024 is located in the Amazon.
“The drought period in the Amazon, typically from June to October, has been especially severe this year, further exacerbating the wildfire crisis in the region – a reflection of the intensifying effects of climate change, which play a critical role in the spread of fires,” commented Ane Alencar, Director of Science at IPAM (Amazon Environmental Research Institute) and Coordinator of MapBiomas Fogo, in a statement.
Economic losses
The wildfires and droughts are not only an environmental disaster but are also leading to billions of dollars in losses. The worsening climate crisis in recent months has strained basic services, including energy and water supplies and raised concerns about the long-term economic impact of extreme weather events.
The authorities estimate that economic losses have surpassed R$16 billion (US$3.2 billion), with damage being experienced in both rural areas and cities. In the agricultural sector, the Brazilian Confederation of Agriculture and Livestock (CNA) estimates that fires caused R$14.7 billion (US$2.82 billion) in losses to the agribusiness sector between June and August.
The CNA, a Brazilian agribusiness forum, reported that 2.8 million hectares of rural properties were affected during this period, not accounting for fires in September. The impacts include the destruction of organic matter, fencing, and vital nutrients like potassium and phosphorus in the topsoil layers and reduced productivity.
In urban areas, the National Confederation of Municipalities (CNM) has calculated economic losses exceeding R$1.3 billion (US$250 million). More than 15.4 million people were impacted by fires across the country between January and September, with 1,042 being displaced. In contrast, the same period in 2023 saw 12,400 people affected by wildfires.
However, the CNM warns that the actual number may be even higher, as data on displaced individuals is still missing from many municipalities.
“Nonetheless, the fact is that most were directly affected – whether by smoke, the need for medical care, or interruptions to essential services like school closures,” the confederation stated.
A total of 573 cities have declared emergencies due to wildfires in 2024. By comparison, only 40 had done so in the first nine months of 2023.
Climate and economic concerns
Estimating the full scale of the losses during an ongoing crisis is challenging, analysts explain, as many effects remain unknown. According to Sergio Vale, Chief Economist at MB Associados, the current context serves as a wake-up call for the need for significant long-term economic changes.
“The world needs more concrete action to prevent catastrophic scenarios in the coming years. In Brazil’s case, the primary economic concern is how climate change is affecting agriculture. This will require irrigation projects and insurance schemes. And rural insurance is still relatively underdeveloped in Brazil,” said Vale.
Fortunately, due to the off-season period, major crops such as soybeans and corn, which dominate Brazilian agriculture, have not yet been severely impacted by the fires. However, Vale warned that if water scarcity continues, it could severely disrupt the summer planting season for these and other crops.
A report by Brazilian consultancy LCA noted that the ongoing drought and wildfires “increase inflation risks and reduce GDP growth,” which measures the country’s economic activity. The report also indicated that the current situation has already led to changes in electricity pricing tiers, and is starting to put pressure on food prices.
In September, Brazil introduced “Red Flag Level 1,” adding R$4.463 (US$1) per 100 kilowatt-hours consumed to electricity bills. Looking further ahead, even if infrastructure improvements in energy generation and distribution, as well as the expansion of alternative energy sources, could help to mitigate the effects of droughts, these solutions would take significant time to become effective.
“And it’s undeniable that if the climate situation continues to worsen, the economic impacts, in the medium and long term, will become increasingly adverse – particularly in terms of energy supply and agricultural productivity,” LCA’s analysis concluded.
