For those who thought that humanity would rely on coal and petrol for electricity generation for the next century, it might be somewhat amazing to learn that in just a couple of years, it is predicted that renewables will overtake fossils as the world’s primary source of electricity.
Right now, 75% of electricity generated from renewables comes after harvesting the power of the sun. Moreover, with advances in this field, it is anticipated that solar technologies will continue to become more and more efficient every year.
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), solar PV generation saw a record-breaking 270 TWh rise (up 26%), reaching about 1,300 TWh in 2022. Forecasts indicate that by 2028, solar PV and wind energy input will be more than twice as high as the 2022 levels.
What should we expect from the solar energy market? Let’s delve deeper into the trends for the near future.
Five future trends in solar energy generation
Developments in solar photovoltaic technology are leading to the production of lighter, more affordable, and better-performing solar panels. This, in turn, leads to increased solar photovoltaic energy inputs at the global level, with the IEA reporting that around 75% of global additions in 2023 came from solar energy.
Here’s what to watch for in this rapidly expanding sector:
1️⃣ Improved solar panel efficiency
The U.S. National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) reports that there has been a significant improvement in solar cell efficiency. In 2000, the efficiency of solar cells was around 25% (i.e., 25% of the sun’s power was transformed into solar energy). Just a decade later, this increased to 35% and after another 14 years, today, due to developments in the materials used and the panels’ design, their efficiency is 50%.
2️⃣ Increased use of bifacial solar panels
Bifacial solar panels can absorb sunlight from both sides which increases their efficiency and thus the level of energy produced by solar installations.
The value of the bifacial solar market was estimated to be US$6.8 Billion in 2022 and by 2032 it is expected to reach an astonishing US$26.4 billion. During this time, experts predict that the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) will be around 16%.
3️⃣ Rise of building-integrated photovoltaics (BIPV)
Solar power-producing devices or systems known as building-integrated photovoltaics, or BIPV, are seamlessly embedded into a structure’s envelope, as well as in windows, roofing, and façades. The BIPV market was worth nearly US$20 billion in 2022 and registered impressive growth in just one year to reach US$23.18 billion in 2023. Furthermore, by 2032 the BIPV market is predicted to hit US$143.99 billion.
4️⃣ Progress in solar energy storage technology
One of the challenges in the use of solar-generated electricity is the discrepancy in the periods of usage and high peaks of production. The industry has been seeking a viable solution for the large-capacity storage of electricity for its further use.
Today, improvements in energy storage technologies, including progress in the development of lithium-ion and solid-state batteries, can increase the reliability of solar power, ensuring a continuous energy supply even on cloudy days.
The market for solar energy storage exceeded US$46.7 billion in 2022, and it is expected to grow at a CAGR of 15.6% between 2023 and 2032. This can be ascribed to the adoption of strict rules aimed at promoting environmental sustainability and the increasing energy demand.
5️⃣ Wider use of smart technologies in solar systems
The use of smart technologies such as AI in solar systems is becoming more and more popular. AI provides insights into cost-effective ways to increase energy output by analyzing and predicting data from solar panels. It can also spot any faults or technical issues very promptly which allows operators to maintain solar installations efficiently.
Solar energy workforce development
The International Labour Organization reported that in 2022, 13.7 million people were involved globally in the renewable energy sector with almost 5 million people being employed in solar energy.
By 2028, total solar industry adoption is predicted to almost triple, boosting employment and stimulating the economy. By 2030, it is anticipated that there will be around 14 million jobs in this market.
Is solar energy truly sustainable?
Without a doubt, solar energy is more environmentally friendly than fossil fuels. The main factors still affecting its sustainability are the lack of raw materials needed to create solar technology, the greenhouse gases released during the production of components, and the environmental effects of disposing of solar panels.
Costly solar panels and storage
Even though the price of solar panels has dropped over the last 10 years, a full solar energy system still needs a sizable financial commitment. The median installation cost of photovoltaics has constantly decreased along with production costs. In 2022 it was 876 USD/kW.
In addition, solar panels generate extra power at a time when it might not be used which brings the need to store it in solar batteries. However, these can be rather costly (based on the battery’s size and type).
Source: OurWorldinData
Solar technology’s manufacturing impact on the environment
Both the mining of metals and various minerals, as solar panels’ components, and their manufacturing process lead to a high level of greenhouse gas emissions.
Solar panels are made of silicon and an array of precious metals, including silver, copper, indium, and tellurium, which are all mined at huge environmental costs and impact. Moreover, to store energy solar battery storage is required which needs lithium.
Read more about lithium-producing economies: Five major lithium-producing countries in the world
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration “as with any type of power plant, large solar power plants can affect the environment at or near their locations”. In addition, the natural habitats of various plants and animals may be damaged in the long-run when a power station is being constructed.
Solar PV manufacturing plants also generate wastewater that contains hazardous chemicals that may end up in the environment and thus must be carefully handled.
Uninstalling and disposal
It may be challenging, costly, and time-consuming to remove and relocate a solar system. The appropriate disposal of solar technology is essential since it is comprised of environmentally hazardous materials.
When solar panels reach the end of their useful life (ideally after 25-30 years of use), they are either recycled or dumped in landfills. There are currently few solutions available for recycling solar panels. This is because they need to be disassembled and sorted by materials before they can be recycled using the appropriate method for each component. This involves a large amount of labor which is not always cost-efficient.
According to projections from the International Renewable Energy Agency, the amount of waste generated by solar panels worldwide could reach 78 million metric tons by the year 2050.
Final word
The trends point to a shift toward better-performing and smart solar solutions with technological breakthroughs like AI being actively implemented. At the same time, it is vital that along with innovations in solar technology, we witness a widespread adoption of recycling alternatives, otherwise the environment will suffer from old PV panels being disposed of in an environmentally unfriendly manner.
