Welcome to this edition of DevelopmentAid Hero Stories where we introduce you to Tigran Jrbashyan, Partner and Director of Ameria Management Advisory. As a dynamic figure at the forefront of Armenia’s development aid sector, Tigran’s extensive career reflects a steadfast commitment to and passion for pioneering solutions and strategic leadership. Discover his groundbreaking solutions for demographic challenges in Armenia and neighboring nations, his legacy in the development sector, and the future of public policy advisory services.
DevelopmentAid: To begin, can you tell us about the career path that led you to become a leading figure in Armenia’s development aid sector?
Tigran Jrbashyan: My journey began in 1989 when I established a private consulting firm in Armenia, one of the first of its kind. Back then, we focused on assisting corporate clients to navigate the new market economy emerging after the Soviet era. This involved key initiatives like privatization, establishing the banking sector, and price liberalization. Later, by the end of the 90s, we had grown to be one of the largest in Armenia’s advisory market.
One defining experience came in the early 2000s when I led a team managing a highly successful project focusing on legal approximation with the European Union. This project involved building a network of over 50 local and international experts. The project’s success not only yielded positive outcomes for Armenia but also led to numerous opportunities for me.
While I craved a return to public policy, I also recognized the value of honing my leadership and management skills. This led me to an opportunity in the private sector, where I served as the Development Director and Member of Management Board at Ameriabank, playing a pivotal role in transforming the bank into the country’s leader.
DevelopmentAid: Following your successful stint in the private sector, what motivated you to return to public policy advisory services?
Tigran Jrbashyan: While I enjoyed my work at Armenia’s largest bank, I ultimately missed my core passion – advisory services in the public sector. In 2013, I joined Ameria Consulting. Leveraging my extensive network built over decades, I helped them to re-enter the public sector and secure participation in prestigious projects. Today, Ameria thrives as a leading strategic advisor for the government of Armenia.
Currently, Ameria operates with three distinct but interconnected divisions. The largest division focuses on public advisory, where we hold a leading position in the Armenian market. We work with governments at various levels, both locally and regionally, with a special emphasis on serving Armenia, our valued long-term client.
Our second division is dedicated to corporate advisory. We continue to support our corporate clients by providing expertise in feasibility studies, strategy development, business processes development, business transformation, and other key areas.
A unique aspect of Ameria is our dedicated research center. Established in the early days of the firm, this center boasts a team that has grown alongside us. They conduct research to inform the work of our other two divisions and undertake independent research initiatives. From our comprehensive Market Watch service, delivering timely updates and expert insights, to our in-depth Sectorial Reviews that explore key industries within the Armenian economy, we provide a holistic approach to understanding market dynamics. Furthermore, our Economy reports offer clients detailed insights into economic trends and indicators, while our Tailored Research services cater to specific client needs, delivering customized studies that offer actionable insights to drive growth and success. Through a blend of qualitative and quantitative methodologies, our dedicated research team stands ready to empower our clients with the knowledge and strategic guidance necessary to navigate today’s complex business landscape.
DevelopmentAid: Among the different areas your company focuses on, which do you identify with the most? Where do you see your expertise making the biggest impact?
Tigran Jrbashyan: I see myself primarily as a strategic advisor. This is where my strengths lie, particularly in crafting evidence-based strategies and policies. Coming from an academic family and being part of the research community, I possess a solid foundation in developing evidence-based strategies. In Armenia, whenever there’s a discussion about government strategies –be it in social, economic, export, trade development, population, or employment – I’m often the go-to person for these tasks. However, in recent times, I’ve found myself increasingly assuming managerial responsibilities.
DevelopmentAid: Can you tell us about your current portfolio, specifically the regional spread and types of projects you’re working on? Perhaps you could share some examples?
Tigran Jrbashyan: Over the past couple of years, our focus has predominantly revolved around two key areas with significant impact. Firstly, our involvement in shaping the population strategy for the Armenian government stands as a noteworthy endeavor. Currently in its final stages, this project has garnered acclaim from the European demographic community for its rigorous research and meticulous execution. Collaborating with esteemed local and international experts, including luminaries like Wolfgang Lutz from the the Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital, Anna Matysiak, Alexandre Sidorenko, Tomas Kucera, Eduard Jongstra, Nicholas Gailey, has been a source of pride. Their active engagement in reviewing our reports and contributing to the process has enriched the outcome immeasurably.
Secondly, our efforts have been dedicated to crafting an innovative employment strategy. This initiative has garnered attention from global institutions such as the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank who are now advocating for its adoption across the Caucasian and Central Asian regions. Our approach, which addresses both supply and demand aspects of employment synchronously, represents a departure from traditional methods. Historically, governments have tended to focus primarily on supply-side issues, neglecting the equally crucial demand-side challenges. In fact, this is a growth strategy that predetermines the socio-economic development of the country for the next decades.
The uniqueness of these strategies lies in their comprehensive and evidence-based nature. Extensive analytical work forms the cornerstone of both strategies, supported by a systematic and exhaustive action plan encompassing over 150 concrete policy measures for each, complete with a developed monitoring and evaluation system, impact forecast chain, and financial model. These strategies represent a tangible model for shaping the government agenda and guiding actions over the coming decades. Crucially, their impact is profound, ensuring the country’s transformation towards elevated living standards and conditions, characterized by accelerated value-added creation and human capital development, with a central focus on placing individuals at the heart of national development.
While we have overseen a multitude of projects numbering over 220 in the past decade, I consider the population and employment strategies as our flagship endeavors. The potential transformative impact of these strategies on the socio-economic and political landscape of our country is particularly exhilarating.
DevelopmentAid: Why do you view the population strategy as a potential flagship project for your company?
Tigran Jrbashyan: The project stands out for several reasons. Firstly, the extensive research behind it has generated significant discussion and positive recognition at conferences globally, from Switzerland to Bangladesh. This robust foundation has catalyzed interest from other countries in Armenian demographics and policy-making. We’ve already initiated collaborative projects, like comparative studies with Albania (a country with similar demographics) and Armenia’s inclusion in a national transfer account system. While this system may not directly tackle demographic issues, it establishes a vital nexus between population trends and public finances – a focal area for us.
Now, by intertwining these demographic insights with the holistic approach of our employment strategy, which addresses both supply and demand aspects, we’re creating a truly innovative approach. As mentioned before, this approach is much closer to what other countries call a “growth strategy” as it shifts the focus to human capital and a more people-centered perspective. This is crucial because demographic issues are a growing concern in Eastern Europe, impacting everything from education and healthcare to public finances and the overall economy. This project’s trendsetting approach is likely a key reason for the widespread interest in our population strategy work.
DevelopmentAid: While the aging trends present challenges, are there any potential positive consequences or opportunities we can anticipate from these demographic shifts?
Tigran Jrbashyan: In demography, the beauty lies in the fact that our analysis is entirely data-driven. The future is already upon us – we can’t change the demographics of people already born, like today’s children. This allows for very precise calculations and forecasts. The big concern is population aging. Across the globe, societies are facing an increase in the number of people over 65. Improved healthcare and longer lifespans contribute to this trend. This aging population also coincides with a period of historically high fertility after World War II, further amplifying the issue.
Fertility rates are now declining, creating a double whammy. As fewer individuals enter the workforce, the number of retirees continues to swell. Consequently, this will lead to a significant increase in the dependency ratio, placing a strain on public policies related to health, education, retirement, and trade. This isn’t just an Armenian phenomenon; it’s affecting most European and some South Asian countries like South Korea (with the world’s lowest fertility rate) and Japan (with the most severe aging society). These major demographic trends are already happening and will have a significant impact on nearly every aspect of our lives.
DevelopmentAid: Given your expertise in addressing these demographic challenges, can you walk us through the key elements of the strategy you’ve developed?
Tigran Jrbashyan: Armenia is on the cusp of adopting this comprehensive strategy. We’ve finalized the financial estimates and monitoring indicators for implementation, and the core framework has already been discussed at the highest levels of government with international experts involved. The main objective is to establish a system that fosters a long-term, sustainable population with minimal fluctuations. This will be achieved with a strong emphasis on human capital development. To reach this goal, we’ve identified four crucial pillars:
Supporting families and encouraging childbirth: This addresses the declining birth rate. Interestingly, Armenia has a unique situation where the desired number of children per family is higher than the actual number born. This presents a window of opportunity to support families in achieving their ideal family size. This creates a window of opportunity – roughly 7 to 10 years – where we can support families in achieving their desired family size.
Reducing mortality rates: This pillar focuses on public health policies that can prevent deaths caused by non-communicable diseases, road accidents, and unhealthy lifestyles. It’s not just about increasing births, but also ensuring people live longer, healthier lives.
Active aging: Active aging is a growing trend across Europe. As life expectancy increases, we want to keep older adults engaged in society, contributing their skills and experience. Public policies will play a crucial role in encouraging people to stay active and socially connected.
Managing migration: Migration is a significant phenomenon affecting many Eastern European countries, including Armenia, Georgia, Moldova, Albania, and Ukraine. Armenia, for example, has lost almost one-third of its population due to emigration in the past 30 years. This pillar acknowledges this trend and explores ways to make Armenia more attractive to immigrants, while also dealing with the challenges of outward migration.
Each pillar has specific programs and measures associated with it, but they represent the core areas of focus within the overall strategy.
DevelopmentAid: You mentioned other Eastern European countries facing similar challenges. Can your approach be applied to other regions as well? How do you tailor solutions to different contexts?
Tigran Jrbashyan: The United Nations Population Fund actually considers Armenia to be a benchmark for other countries due to our approach. We’re currently exploring a fascinating comparative study between Albania and Armenia. These two countries share a remarkably similar demographic structure – their data is almost indistinguishable. They’re also both highly mono-ethnic and have large diasporas abroad. While the causes of these similarities are a research topic, Armenia is demonstrably ahead in addressing these issues through public policy.
Our goal is to understand how these differing stages of policy development affect demographic outcomes. Based on insights from UNFPA regional experts, Armenia’s experience in implementing this demographic strategy has the potential to be replicated in other countries. While full-scale implementation might not be universally applicable, the core approach – including research methods, evidence-based decision-making, and forecasting model development like the one we created with Charles University in Prague – can certainly be adapted for other regions.
DevelopmentAid: Can you elaborate on how your organization ensures its initiatives have a real-world impact at the local and potentially even global level?
Tigran Jrbashyan: I believe there are three key factors contributing to the significant impact of our work. The first might seem a little unconventional, but it’s my extensive network of contacts. Being involved in public policy reform for the past 20 years has allowed me to build strong relationships with a wide range of people across the country. This network enables me to personally explain the rationale behind our initiatives and connect with decision-makers on a one-on-one basis.
The second key factor is our unwavering commitment to evidence-based solutions. We firmly believe that expert opinions alone are insufficient. Our proposals and discussions are grounded in solid data and research which strengthens our arguments and compels stakeholders to consider our recommendations seriously.
Finally, our international positioning plays a crucial role. We actively involve international partners in our work and embrace collaborative projects such as consortia. This allows for a valuable exchange of experiences and expertise. We typically have one or two international experts working alongside our team, not only enriching specific projects but also fostering continuous learning and knowledge sharing.
DevelopmentAid: Your passion for your work is evident. Do your personal convictions ever strongly influence the organization’s direction?
Tigran Jrbashyan: In the past, I certainly played a more prominent role in shaping the organization’s course. However, I’m incredibly proud of the team we’ve built. Our team members now own and manage projects independently, generating and developing ideas while taking the lead on implementation. One of my proudest legacies will be the people I’ve worked with and helped develop. This extends beyond our company – there are several successful advisory firms that have been established by former colleagues who remain friends and collaborators. They participate in our events and joint projects, fostering a strong network. While I still provide strategic direction for the company, I’m witnessing incredible growth within our team.
DevelopmentAid: Looking ahead, how do you envision the company’s future growth?
Tigran Jrbashyan: I see two main areas of growth. Firstly, we’ve developed valuable expertise in demographics, employment, and other related fields. This positions us to be a sought-after partner for projects beyond Eastern Europe. We’ve already begun collaborating in Georgia, Central Asia, and Albania, and I believe we can expand further as a consortium member, offering valuable insights not just in the CIS region but also across Eastern Europe.
Secondly, I’m very excited about the potential of big data and AI. These technologies unlock a wealth of new data sources for research. For example, during the recent Russia-Ukraine conflict, we were tasked with surveying relocated Russians in Armenia. Traditional methods proved ineffective – they simply blended into the population. So, we innovatively used telecom data. Since Armenian SIM cards require passports, we quickly identified the number of Russian passports used to register new SIM cards after a specific date. This allowed us to target these individuals for a survey without compromising personal data. Furthermore, considering most people don’t opt out of receiving marketing messages, we leveraged mobile communication to invite them to participate. In our case, the telecom data approach allowed us to achieve a representative sample in just two weeks, something that traditional methods would have made 10 times more expensive and time-consuming. This is just one example, but it highlights the immense potential for these advances to revolutionize the advisory sector.
Looking ahead, I believe these data-driven approaches will become the norm. While competition might lead to lower prices, it will also drive higher quality and efficiency in our work – ultimately benefiting the clients.
DevelopmentAid: As we conclude this interview, is there a specific aspect of your organization’s work or the future of the public policy advisory sector that you’d like to highlight for our audience?
Tigran Jrbashyan: One final thought I’d like to leave you with concerns the future of our sector, particularly in public policy advisory services. I believe increased collaboration, data-driven approaches, and knowledge sharing will be critical for our success moving forward. There’s a wealth of creativity out there, with colleagues and partners across the globe developing innovative ways to utilize data for analysis. By sharing these experiences, we can all learn and grow together.
Open debate is also crucial. It fosters collaboration, information exchange, and visibility – all vital elements in today’s interconnected world. The reality is our world is much smaller than we often realize. The challenges we face share many similarities. By opening our doors and perspectives to one another, we can create a powerful synergy that benefits everyone.
