Iraq, a nation contending with the far-reaching effects of climate change, is now facing a serious water crisis and the country is currently fifth globally in terms of vulnerability, according to a report by the United Nations Environment Programme. This crisis poses a dire threat to human rights while simultaneously undermining the fundamental pillars of Iraq’s societal and economic structure.
The United Nations Environment Programme underscores Iraq’s position as the world’s fifth-most impacted country by climate change, elucidating the severe environmental degradation caused by conflicts, activities in the oil industry, and governance inadequacies. This situation not only endangers human rights but also intensifies rising pollution levels, further compromising the well-being of the Iraqi population.
The International Organization for Migration highlights the intensifying pressure on critical sectors such as agriculture, livestock breeding, and fishing that is being fueled by factors such as drought, land degradation, and increased salinity in rivers.
In tandem with this environmental unraveling, Iraq’s Ministries of Agriculture and Environment paint a dire picture, sounding the alarm regarding an annual loss of 100,000 dunams (1 dunam = 1,000 square meters) due to desertification. The water crisis has already led to a 50% reduction in agricultural land, marking its lowest levels in years, the ministry noted. Vital crops like wheat and barley face diminishing cultivated areas, and the loss of approximately 2 million dunams of vegetation cover over the past decade is exacerbating the challenges. The seriousness of the climate change-induced crisis was further emphasized by Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kadhimi’s acknowledgment in March 2023 that 7 million Iraqis have been adversely affected.
Stressing the root causes of Iraq’s water scarcity, Agriculture and Water Resources expert, Tahseen Al-Mousawi highlights the nation’s dependence on water rations from the neighboring Tigris and Euphrates basins. Alarmingly, approximately 90% of the Euphrates water originates from Turkey, with Turkey contributing 56% to the Tigris and Iran 15% with the remainder generated internally with the situation becoming more fragile due to the absence of binding agreements that specify Iraq’s share of the available water.
The arbitrary management of Iraq’s water resources has resulted in a significant decline in levels with the annual flow to the Euphrates plunging from 40-45 billion cubic meters to a mere 15 billion over the past century. Similarly, the Tigris basin has witnessed a decrease from 40-50 billion cubic meters to less than 20 billion due to dam constructions. Over 40 tributaries, including important ones from Iran, have been diverted thereby intensifying the crisis, according to Al-Mousawi.
The impact on Iraq’s human population is staggering, characterized by a simultaneous surge in water demand and a decline in supply. Desertification now affects over 90% of the land and has led to the loss of more than 50% of arable land. Urban migration, fueled by water shortages, has contributed to the decline of Iraq’s marshes which were declared an international protected area in 2017.
Internally, water management inefficiencies persist with Iraq relying on outdated irrigation methods that consume 70% of water for agriculture. The lack of modern water management systems, recycling processes, and pollution treatment units only serves to worsen the crisis. Southern regions, especially Basra, are bearing the brunt, and the issue is spreading to lower Baghdad. Climate change is intensifying the situation leaving Iraq ranked among the top five vulnerable countries where it is negatively impacting water security. Pollution rates also increase with diminishing water levels, Al-Mousawi told DevelopmentAid.
Continuing, Al-Mousawi highlights the dire long-term effects that will impact between 40-50% of Iraq’s population who are engaged in agriculture. Urban migration places a strain on the government, leading to increased consumption rates and heightened competition among professions. Rising unemployment is challenging societal norms, and security disputes are escalating due to migration.
The increase in desertification complicates land restoration with significant ramifications anticipated in the coming years with current policies falling short thus posing a global threat. Iraq’s failure to engage in external negotiations and its lack of prioritization of water management both demand urgent attention. Proactive solutions that leverage Iraq’s strengths, engage in trade, and seek international support, are critical to avert a potential catastrophe whereas inaction may lead to severe consequences in the near future.
In a recent report, the Iraqi Empowerment for Peace Center sheds light on Iraq’s deepening water crisis and attributes the ongoing challenge to a historical lack of political will. Positioned as a downstream nation that is heavily dependent on surface water from neighboring countries, Iraq faces heightened vulnerability due to weak responses from its successive governments. Neighboring states are worsening the situation by constructing dams and redirecting water from shared rivers, further diminishing Iraq’s water supply. The report emphasizes the impactful role of Turkey’s Ataturk Dam which was completed in 1991 as part of a broader strategy involving additional dams and hydroelectric power stations along the Tigris and Euphrates rivers.
Key statistics revealed in the report include Iraq’s average annual rainfall of 216 mm which is considerably lower than the United States’ average of 762 mm. The Tigris and Euphrates rivers contribute over 90% of Iraq’s water, primarily from Turkey (71%), Iran (7%), and Syria (4%). The study highlights Iraq’s heavy reliance on these rivers for irrigation which constitutes 75% of surface water consumption. However, a drastic reduction in the total water volume from 93.47 billion cubic meters in 2019 to 49.59 billion cubic meters in 2020, attributed to actions by upstream countries, poses a severe threat to Iraq’s water security.
The report concludes by highlighting the impact of the Southeast Anatolia Project which is reducing Iraq’s water resources to about 40 billion cubic meters annually. This loss is projected to escalate by an additional 11 billion cubic meters each year, necessitating urgent and comprehensive strategies to address Iraq’s water crisis.
Adel Al-Mukhtar, an agricultural and environmental expert, ascribes the water crisis in Iraq to poor management, particularly in agriculture which relies on inefficient surface irrigation thus further depleting scarce water resources. Southern regions like Basra, Muthanna, and Dhi Qar have borne the consequences of misguided water policies which has led to migration, agricultural decline, and environmental pollution.
The water crisis has aggravated a one-sided economy and sparked conflicts among tribes over water resources. Al-Mukhtar proposes a comprehensive review of agricultural policies and efficient water resource use as the only viable solution but he told DevelopmentAid that implementing modern irrigation systems would take time and the upcoming summer could be catastrophic due to insufficient rainfall and historically low water reserves.
Internal challenges persist as negotiations between Iran and Turkey remain complex with Iran refusing to discuss the 1975 agreement while Turkey continues to reject international arbitration thus complicating crisis resolution which remains elusive, Al-Mukhtar added.
According to the Water Stress Index projections for 2019, Iraq is expected to become a land without rivers by 2040, and the waters of the Tigris and Euphrates will not reach their final outlet in the Arabian Gulf. The Water Stress Index is a measure of the scarcity of renewable freshwater available per person each year from the total available water resources for the region’s population.
The total average consumption for all needs in Iraq, at a minimum, is about 53 billion cubic meters annually while Iraq requires 70 billion cubic meters to meet its needs.
The quantity of river water in good seasons is estimated to be about 77 billion cubic meters, and in drought seasons, this decreases to around 44 billion cubic meters.
