Even as world leaders discussed the ever-increasing challenges posed by record-breaking heatwaves, devastating floods and escalating climate concerns at the recently concluded COP28, South Africans continue to battle all three as well as rolling blackouts.
The country’s predominantly coal-fired power stations have been making the headlines for a number of years now as academic debates and rhetoric dominate the national dialogue on a Just Energy Transition (JET).
From 0 to 157 days of electricity blackout
The roots of the JET can be traced back to 2011, with the National Development Plan identifying the need for a low-carbon, climate-resilient economy by 2030. In that year, South Africa recorded zero electricity blackouts or load-shedding days.
Little progress was made in the next seven years and in 2018 the National Strategy for the Electricity Sector identified the need for diversification away from coal.
See also: Breaking the link in South Africa’s coal value chain
In 2019, a year later, the Presidential Climate Change Commission was established. By then, South Africa had recorded 15 and 30 load-shedding days in 2018 and 2019, respectively.
In 2021, South Africa adopted the Nationally Determined Contribution under the Paris Agreement which set ambitious emissions reduction targets, developed a Just Transition Framework, and launched the Eskom Just Energy Transition Project which received US$497 million from the World Bank in support. In the same year, the state power utility Eskom recorded 1,169 hours of outages (~49 days).
In 2022, the Cabinet endorsed the Just Transition Framework and published the Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement program which aimed to accelerate renewable energy deployment. The country registered 3,773 hours of power outages (~157 days) that year.
2022 would also mark the first time coal dropped below 80% of the ~228 TWh of total system load met, while photo-voltaic (PV), wind and concentrating solar-thermal power (CSP) contributed 7%, according to a report by the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research.
See also: South Africa declares state of disaster as electricity crisis deepens
The same report notes that from 1 November 2013 to 31 December 2022, 3,443 MW of wind, 2,287 MW of large-scale solar PV and 500 MW of CSP became operational.
Jobs and coal
A report from the World Resources Institute indicates that up to 200,000 workers were employed in South Africa’s coal mines, coal power plants and coal transport in 2019. This includes an estimated 82,000 employees in the mining sector (2018) and nearly 50,000 employed in primarily coal-fired power plants run by Eskom which produces 90% of the country’s electricity supply and is responsible for roughly 40% of the country’s GHG emissions.
Looking into the history of the coal mining industry, however, shows that employment in this sector has been falling since the early 1980s as mines became more mechanised, with jobs in the coal industry as a whole estimated to account for roughly 0.5% of the national workforce.
This figure takes on more significance when considered against the backdrop of the country’s unemployment figures which show that close to one in three people were unemployed as of the third quarter of 2023.
Eskom-commissioned research conducted by KPMG in 2017 shows that 92,000 jobs would be lost if five coal-fired power stations were closed to make way for independent power producers.
“We demand a Just Transition which will ensure that workers at coal-fired power plants who may lose their jobs as a result of the transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy, will be trained and absorbed into the renewable energy sector. We cannot solve the problem of climate change by exacerbating joblessness,” the National Union of Mineworkers and the National Union of Metalworkers of South Africa said in an undated statement issued during sector wage negotiations.
Fig.1. Employment in the coal sector 1970-2015
Source: Coal Transitions in South Africa
150,000 workers in coal-related industries are likely to be affected
Meanwhile, a Trade & Industrial Strategies 2021 brief shows that direct employment across the coal value chain stands at around 150,000 workers. The production and transport of coal is linked to about 72% of those jobs, two-thirds of which is linked to mining.
The brief identified the demographics of workers in the coal value chain in 2017 as:
- Relatively young, with a median age of 38 years
- Typically supporting three dependents
- Earning between R10,000 and R15,000 (about US$550- 20) a month
- Having retirement funds (80%)
- Having access to the Unemployment Insurance Fund (over 90%)
- Being union members (70%)
- Having a grade 12 or lower education (80%)
- Being semi-skilled (74 %) or low-skilled (17%)
- Low-carbon industries likely to create 815,000 new jobs
It is these workers who are most likely to be impacted by – and potentially benefit from – South Africa’s transition to a low-carbon economy, with the expectation being that 815,000 new jobs will be created by 2050 (and 300,000 jobs lost in the process), according to World Bank senior education specialist, Elizabeth Ninan.
“While a just transition creates opportunities to diversify the economy, it will also have significant impacts on the labor market,” she said at a 2022 Skills for a Just Transition Indaba (workshop).
Speaking at the same forum, Presidential Climate Commission Executive Director, Dr Crispian Olver, noted:
“In aggregate, a more decarbonised economy in South Africa is going to have a higher number of jobs than are present currently in the fossil fuel-dependent economy. However, these jobs will be in different sectors and places, as well as arising at different times.”
Furthermore, in his annual State of the Nation address earlier this year, President Cyril Ramaphosa noted the just transition would be managed in such a way as to create new jobs. At the time, he highlighted the new sectors as being green hydrogen, electric vehicles, and renewable energy.
“These and other massive investments in renewable energy will create jobs and stimulate local economies not only in the Northern Cape but also in the Eastern Cape, Western Cape and Mpumalanga, turning even the most arid desert into a giant energy source. Above all, our just transition will prioritise workers and communities in vulnerable industries to ensure that no one is left behind,” he said.
COP28 as an incentive for energy transition
COP28 may now just mark the start of the stimulation referred to as South Africa has secured US$8.5 billion from international partners after launching its Just Energy Transition Partnership 2023-2027 at the Conference of Parties – thereby bringing financial commitments in support of decarbonisation programs to US$12.5 billion.
Environment Minister Barbara Creecy estimates that the country requires more than US$98 billion to effectively implement the energy transition between 2023 and 2027.
“It is not just an energy transition plan, but a just one – and this puts workers and communities at the centre of defining their future in a low carbon economy. The JETP-IP will require over R1.5 trillion to be fully implemented,” she said.
