The International Rescue Committee (IRC) releases its annual Emergency Watchlist of the 20 countries most at risk of intensifying humanitarian emergencies in 2024. Sudan, occupied Palestinian Territory, and South Sudan top the list, with the 20 Watchlist countries accounting for about 10% of the world’s population, but approximately 86% of global humanitarian needs.
Sudan, where fighting broke out in April 2023, tops the Emergency Watchlist this year after not featuring in the top ten last year. Large-scale urban warfare, minimal international attention, and the risk of regional spillover threaten a dramatic deterioration in 2024 with 25 million people already in humanitarian need, and 6 million displaced.
The occupied Palestinian territory is second on this year’s Watchlist. Gaza enters 2024 as the deadliest place for civilians in the world. Following the horrific October 7 attacks by Hamas, Israel’s bombardment of hospitals, and infrastructure, denial of humanitarian access, combined with massive displacement means that 3 million people living in oPt will need humanitarian aid in 2024. The IRC expects even more severe needs in 2024 – especially with the imminent collapse of Gaza’s healthcare system.
South Sudan continues to suffer from the worst impacts of conflict and climate change, with El Niño-induced flooding predicted for next year. The impacts of the war in Sudan threaten to further destabilize the country’s fragile economy, and the IRC anticipates an uptick in violence ahead of the country’s first-ever elections scheduled for December 2024.
The IRC’s Emergency Watchlist is out. The report assesses the 20 countries at greatest risk of new humanitarian emergencies due to factors such as climate risk, conflict, economic pressures, growing impunity, and a decline in international support. More: https://t.co/GajLiRS3py
— IRC – International Rescue Committee (@RESCUEorg) December 14, 2023
For the first time, eight of the top 10 countries on the Watchlist are in Africa. The continent is seeing some countries achieve fast growth and rising living standards. However, conflict, coups, and poverty are rising at alarming rates. Since 2010, there has been a more than doubling of armed groups operating across African Watchlist countries – with nearly half experiencing unconstitutional transfers of power in the last five years.
The report shows the overlap between conflict, the climate crisis, state fragility, and economic emergency – with 14 Watchlist countries appearing in the list of states where conflict and extreme climate vulnerability both occur.
Watchlist rejects a series of faulty arguments as “myths”: that rich countries host a disproportionate share of refugees, that trucks of aid are enough to serve civilian populations, or that gender inequality is not a matter of life and death. Instead, the report identifies six priorities for urgent action, including a new premium on climate action to help economic adaptation in fragile states; using civil society organizations to deliver support where governments cannot reach; an urgent recommitment to an increase in International Development Assistance grant-based support for fragile and conflict states; support for shared prosperity through strengthened safety nets, and new action to stem the slide to impunity.
IRC President and CEO David Miliband said: “For many of the people IRC serves, this is the worst of times. Today, an increasing concentration of global humanitarian need in Watchlist countries is pushed by factors like disproportionate exposure to climate risk, increasing impunity in conflict zones, the rise in conflict, and an increase in public debt matched with diminishing international support. The statistics laid out and the stories told here are not just IRC’s problem, but the world’s problem. They deserve to be understood and solved. The headlines today are rightly dominated by the crisis in Gaza. There is good reason for that – it is currently the most dangerous place in the world to be a civilian. The ranking of occupied Palestinian territory as second in the Watchlist reflects that. But the Watchlist is a vital reminder that other parts of the world are on fire as well, for structural reasons relating to conflict, climate and economy. We must be able to address more than one crisis at once”.
“In the face of compounding pressures, the Watchlist is a warning against apathy and inertia. There are plenty of ‘answers’ that are simply wrong. In this year’s Watchlist, we reject a series of faulty, often convenient myths, that obstruct not only our view of the emerging geography of global crisis but how to chart a course through it. Truck deliveries on their own cannot deliver aid; aid workers and civilians need to be safe. Europe and the US do not take a disproportionate share of refugees; most are in much poorer countries. Climate change is not tomorrow’s problem; the climate crisis is happening today in Watchlist countries.
“Alongside the myths, there are ideas that, if implemented, could work better. This is the focus of our recommendations. They call on states, civil society, multilateral organizations, and the private sector to adopt a new approach. That is why we highlight a new premium on climate adaptation and women’s empowerment, a people-first shift for the World Bank, and new action to stem the slide of impunity. The debate about these ideas is urgently needed, and real answers even more so.”
