While the global population is expected to significantly grow in number, some countries will still witness a decrease in population by 2050. There are several reasons for this, the foremost of which are fertility rates and emigration.
It may be hard to believe, but the global population has grown by an astonishing 700% in just two hundred years – from around one billion people in 1800 to 8.2 billion in 2024.
Based on the projections noted in the latest report by the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UNDESA), “2024 Revision of World Population Prospects”, over the next five to six decades the world’s population will continue to increase.
The UN predicts that:
- In 2030 the number of people over 80 will reach 265 million, surpassing the number of babies below the age of one.
- In 2070 the world will be home to 2.2 billion people aged 65 or over, a figure that is expected to exceed the number of young people under the age of 18.
- Between 2080 and 2090 humanity will witness the peak of the global population when Earth will become home to 10.3 billion humans.
- However, at the end of the century, the world’s population is expected to decline with some countries registering drastic decreases compared to others.
According to other research conducted by experts at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington, one in two newborns in the world in 2100 will be in countries located in sub-Saharan Africa.
Let’s break down the countries that registered the most drastic decrease in population in 2023:
The 20 countries with the fastest population decline rate in 2023 (compared to 2022)
Source: Statista.com
In 2023, the Cook Islands experienced the largest population decline of 2.31% compared to the previous year.
The majority of the nations included on this list are island nations from which numerous residents emigrate to neighboring wealthy countries like Australia and the United States and countries in Eastern Europe which is a region that experiences low birth rates and high emigration rates.
Now let’s look at which countries are projected to register the most dramatic decrease in population over the next three decades.
The countries that are likely to register a decline in population size are mainly located in or near Eastern Europe, except Japan and Cuba. From 2020 to 2050, the highest drop in population, 22.5%, will be recorded in Bulgaria. Lithuania follows with a 22.1% projected decline for the same period and Latvia ranks third with 21.6%.
Top 20 countries with the fastest declining populations, 2020-2050
Source: Visual Capitalist
There are several reasons why Eastern European countries lead the list of countries with the quickest decline in populations. Firstly, birthrates dropped dramatically in these countries after the USSR collapsed. While in 1988, on average, a woman had 2.1 children, in 1998, this number fell to 1.2. Secondly, emigration has played a significant role. Due to the European Union’s border expansion between 2004 and 2007, Eastern European countries had recorded emigration equal to 6.3 million people by 2016.
The only nations outside Eastern Europe with low birth rates are Japan and Cuba. In Japan, the birth rate has been falling since 1971, when it was 2.2, to 1.2 in 2023.
Overall, 727,277 babies were born in 2023 in Japan which is a decrease of 43,482 from the year before while, at the same time, 1,575,936 people passed away. The typical unwillingness of Japanese people to have children outside marriage and the country’s tendency toward late marriages or not marrying at all are cultural factors that pose significant obstacles to increasing the birth rate.
In Cuba, the birth rate is the lowest among Latin American countries. For instance, in Guatemala and Paraguay the fertility rate, measured by births per woman, was equal to 2.4 in 2022, in Mexico, it was 1.8 while in Cuba the fertility rate it was equal to 1.4.
Cuba also has a low level of immigration. The International Organization for Migration states only 0.1% of the population in Cuba are migrants.
As for the population growth rate on a global level, this has slowed down over time, reaching its slowest rate, 1%, in 2020 compared to 1950. However, estimates show that, despite this deceleration, the global population could increase to about 8.5 billion by 2030, 9.7 billion by 2050, and 10.4 billion by 2080. Currently, China leads the list of the most populous countries but India is expected to exceed China in 2023.
What is the reason behind the slowdown in population growth?
Even though the population is expected to grow for at least the next five decades, the growth rate is already rapidly slowing down. The main cause lies in the reduction in fertility rates. Since the 1960s the fertility rate around the world has decreased by more than half, from over 5 children per woman to 2.5 to 3.31 in 1990.
What are the drivers of the great fertility slump?
According to one perspective, women have greater autonomy and fertility decreases as more women engage in higher education and employment.
Having access to better education means women have more control over their relationships, increased knowledge of contraception, and more say in family planning.
An increasing number of women have chosen to postpone having children to continue their careers. Having children also compromises the opportunity to earn more when women’s incomes grow in comparison to those of their male spouses.
Final word:
Over the last couple of centuries, the global population has seen a drastic increase, but things are about to change. While the number of people on Earth will continue to increase over the next few decades, some countries will see a continual decrease in the number of their citizens. And with fertility rates dropping globally, we will soon witness the number of older people alive exceeding the number of children.
