Africa’s G5 Sahel is a regional cooperation organization that was established in 2014 by five states from the region to tackle security and development challenges. Burkina Faso, Mali, Mauritania, Chad, and Niger face multiple political, social, and security problems that are characterized by coup d’etats, violent extremism, terrorism, and communal violence. The insecurity in the region is forcing the authorities to increase military expenditure by rates rarely seen across the world – from 66% to 338% per year. This, in turn, undermines public investment and impedes economic growth by diverting much-needed funds from sustainable development.
This DevelopmentAid article will reveal how surging defense spending as a result of political instability and violent extremism is undermining public investment and leading to economic and social crises.
Evolution of the GDP per capita in the G5 Sahel
In Africa’s Sahel region, trade and investments are disrupted by conflicts which has led to the GDP and per capita incomes to remain low for years. The effects of conflicts on GDP per capita over four years are estimated to be an almost 18% loss. The research also reveals that over a period of 10 years of conflict, GDP per capita will be 28% less than it would be in a state of peace. The Sahel region, particularly the G5 Sahel, is amongst the least developed regions on the globe with a GDP per capita of almost $790 in 2021 compared to an average of $1,600 in sub-Saharan Africa.
Figure 1 indicates the growth rates of GDP in three conflict-stricken countries in the Sahel region and neighboring countries using a three-year moving average from 2002 to 2021. The trend shows that there have been periods when the GDP significantly declined, particularly from 2011 to 2013 in Mali and 2012 to 2015 in Burkina Faso. The timeframes characterized by the decline in GDP coincide with political unrest and conflicts. The decline in GDP from 2019 can be attributed to the extremely severe impacts of COVID-19 in the Sahel region due to weak institutions and inadequate capacity caused by periods of conflict.
Figure 1: The evolving nature of GDP in Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger, compared to neighboring countries
Source: Emerging Analysis of ODI (2023)
Development aid disbursed to Sahel region countries
Insecurity, violent extremism, strong population growth, and social fragility in the Sahel lead to the region being reliant on development aid. The export base of the nations is weak, while import needs are high with a current account deficit of almost 8% of GDP on average in 2017-2019. In balancing trade deficits, the Sahel region is receiving most of the public development aid relative to GDP, approximately 7% on average. Diaspora remittances are high and account for at least 6% of the GDP.
Instability caused by military coups and violence exposes the population to the significant need for humanitarian aid. Most people in Chad, Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger are in need of humanitarian assistance due to insecurity and the lack of basic necessities. International donors, in collaboration with local governments, are the main providers of aid aiming to reduce the humanitarian needs of the Sahel region population.
The European Union (EU) is one of the largest donors sending aid to the region. In 2024, the EU contributed approximately €144 million in humanitarian assistance and the Regional Humanitarian Fund for West and Central Africa also provided strategic interventions and assistance in Niger, Burkina Faso, and Mali. At the end of August 2024, the aggregate contributions to the regional fund were at least US$24 million, with Burkina Faso receiving $13 million, Niger $8 million, and Mali $3 million.
To address the needs of the population affected by food insecurity and forced displacement, the Regional Fund allocated at least $20 million to Burkina Faso, $5 million to Mali and $11 million to Niger in 2023. According to the UN’s Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), humanitarian donors needed to contribute approximately $4.7 billion in 2024 to meet the needs of almost 21 million people in Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Niger and some of Nigeria’s states.
In 2024, the OCHA-managed pooled funds played an important role in promoting effective humanitarian aid in the Sahel region countries having allocated almost $149 million, as shown in Figure 2.
Figure 2: 2024 Humanitarian aid pooled funds to the Sahel region
Source: UN’s Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs 2024 Report.
Statistics on increasing military expenditures in Africa’s Sahel region
Defense expenditure has been on the rise in most conflict-impacted states in Africa, particularly in the Sahel, since 2019. In Burkina Faso and Mali, defense expenditure has surged by 66% and 138% in the last five years. According to Stockholm International Peace Research Institute 2020 data, military spending in Africa exceeded $43 billion, almost 5% more than in 2019 and 11% more than in 2011. In the Sahel region, the largest increases in defense spending were made by Mali (339%), Burkina Faso (238%), and Niger (288%). In Algeria, defense spending doubled, increasing from almost $10 billion in 2020 to $21 billion in 2024, reflecting an annual growth rate of almost 21%.
Figure 3 indicates military expenditure in three Sahel conflict-stricken nations. In Burkina Faso, military expenditure was almost 4% of the country’s GDP between 2010 and 2015, but by 2017, this figure had increased to 5.6%. In Mali, defense spending was between 3% and 4% of GDP in the period between 2010 to 2020 while in Niger this surged from 2.7% of GDP to 5.1% between 2010 and 2014 and although it decreased to 2.6% in 2017, it had surged again to 3.9% by 2020.
Figure 3: Defense expenditure in Burkina Faso, Niger and Mali, %, GDP
Source: Emerging Analysis of ODI (2023)
Impact of increasing military expenditures on public investment and development in the Sahel region
Protracted political instability and insurgency in the Sahel region are forcing policymakers to prioritize security and military expenditure which is undermining public investment by:
- Diverting funds from social welfare and investment: Policymakers are diverting funds intended for development to purchase weapons and military equipment. For instance, Algeria’s defense expenditure is expected to be almost 10% of the GDP during the next four years.
- Undermining economic development: Increased defense expenditure is undermining the ability of policymakers to make public investments in infrastructure that are important for economic development. Due to conflicts in the Sahel region, neighboring countries such as Ghana are also facing spillover economic impact in terms of refugee management and the substitution of trading partners. Deficits as a result of decreasing exports and Foreign Direct Investment amount to almost 1.3% of GDP in Ghana and almost 5% in Senegal.
- Stagnating Human Development Index (HDI): Limited spending on education and social services due to budget cuts increases social inequality. The diversion of government funding from essential services such as healthcare, education, and social welfare to military funding stagnates the HDI. For instance, Chad’s defense spending, being almost 3% of the country’s GDP in 2022, overshadowed investments in education. Countries in the Sahel region rank in the bottom 30 of the most recent HDI rankings.
- Fuelling humanitarian crisis in terms of hunger: Prioritization of militarization over development is causing displacement, population casualties, and food insecurity in the Sahel region. The diversion of funds to military spending is worsening the living conditions of vulnerable populations and heightening their dependence on aid. Humanitarian aid requirements increased from approximately $894 million in 2019 to almost $2.3 billion in August 2024.
Wrap up
Increasing defense expenditure in Africa’s G5 Sahel region is causing social welfare needs to be neglected which is undermining economic development, stagnating human capital development, and fuelling humanitarian crises. Diverting funds intended for healthcare, infrastructure, and education contributes to a declining GDP per capita and causes economic stagnation. Increasing militarization in the Sahel region is also fuelling instability, mass displacement, hunger, and an over-reliance on development aid, making sustainable growth even more challenging.
