Brazil, once considered a low-risk country for natural disasters, is experiencing a sharp rise in climate-related catastrophes. The annual number of incidents has almost doubled since 2020 compared to the two previous decades, according to a new study by the Brazilian Alliance for Ocean Culture, supported by the Brazilian government and UNESCO.
Further research by the Federal University of São Paulo (Unifesp) shows that from 2020 to 2023, Brazil recorded an annual average of 4,077 climate-related disasters, almost double the 2,073 annual disasters reported between 2000 and 2019. In 2024 alone, the National Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters (Cemaden) documented 1,690 climate disasters, the third-highest number since monitoring began in 2011.
Soaring economic costs
The financial toll of climate disasters in Brazil has escalated dramatically. Between 1995 and 2023, damages were estimated at approximately US$107 billion (R$547.2 billion).
Between January and September 2024 alone, natural disasters caused at least US$6.4 billion (R$37.3 billion) in losses, almost double the annual average recorded in the period above, according to a report by Aon, a British company specializing in risk management and reinsurance.mul
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The most devastating event was the catastrophic flooding in the Brazilian state of Rio Grande do Sul. From April 28 to May 3, 2024, this caused around US$5 billion (R$29.14 billion) in financial losses and claimed 182 lives. The disaster impacted 94.3% of the state’s economic activities, according to the Federation of Industries of Rio Grande do Sul (Fiergs).
“The hardest-hit areas include key industrial hubs in Rio Grande do Sul, significantly affecting vital economic sectors,” explained Arildo Bennech Oliveira, acting President of Fiergs.
Three of the worst-affected regions – the Metropolitan Region of Porto Alegre, Vale dos Sinos, and Serra – contribute R$220 billion to Brazil’s economy and are home to 23,700 industries that employ 433,000 people. A study by Bradesco suggests that the crisis in Rio Grande do Sul could lower Brazil’s GDP growth by 0.2 to 0.3 percentage points.
See also: Heavy rains in Brazil kill at least 28 people
Other major climate-related losses in 2024 included:
- Wildfires that caused an estimated US$360 million in damage
- Prolonged droughts that resulted in losses of US$470 million.
“Brazil was traditionally seen as a low-risk country for natural disasters. However, in recent years, extreme climate events have become more frequent,” said Beatriz Protásio, CEO of Aon Reinsurance Brazil.
From 2019 to 2024, Brazil experienced a severe multi-year drought, one of the most significant in South America’s recent history in terms of scale and intensity. The Pantanal region saw millions of hectares consumed by wildfires. Meanwhile, in May 2024, the worst floods in 80 years hit Rio Grande do Sul, leading to widespread landslides and the collapse of a dam.
Lack of investment in prevention
Experts warn that Brazil’s post-disaster reactive strategy is unsustainable and that shifting towards a prevention approach is a must.
“Brazil lacks a structured policy for disaster risk reduction and adaptation. The issue lies in the chronic underfunding of such initiatives,” said Alessandra Cardoso, an economist at the Institute for Socioeconomic Studies.
After the fatal landslides in Rio de Janeiro’s mountainous region in 2011, which claimed almost 1,000 lives, the government launched the National Risk Management and Disaster Response Plan, which led to:
- The creation of Cemaden
- The mapping of high-risk flood and landslide zones
- Unprecedented investment in disaster prevention in 2012-2017
However, funding dwindled amid the country’s economic and political crises, and disaster prevention funding is scarce nowadays.
“Currently, funding is predominantly reactive,” said Victor Marchezini, a sociologist and researcher at Cemaden.
The National Fund for Public Calamities, Protection, and Civil Defense (Funcap), established to finance prevention initiatives, has never been operational. Instead, resources are mainly disbursed after disaster has already struck.
The administration of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is now trying to revive the 2012 National Protection and Civil Defense Plan to improve prevention efforts, but resources remain insufficient.
A 2022 study analyzing data from 1,993 municipalities found that:
- 72% had no dedicated budget for civil protection and disaster prevention
- 59% had only 1 or 2 staff members in their civil defense departments
- In 94% of cases, funding was allocated post-disaster, with only 6% directed towards prevention
As climate disasters continue to escalate, Brazil faces a critical choice:
- Invest in prevention now or
- Continue its reactive approach
Without urgent action, Brazil risks paying an ever-growing economic and human price for inaction in the coming years.
