Have you felt a little disorientated and under increased pressure recently as if you were dealing with lots of different issues all at the same time? Well, this is not just unique to you, it is an experience many others share according to English historian, John Adam Tooze, a Professor at Columbia University and a Director of the European Institute.
Many of the serious and long-term issues that humanity is currently encountering are referred to as global systemic risks. The issues that are making headlines today such as environmental degradation, the spread of new zoonotic diseases, growing economic disparities, unstable financial systems, mass migration, ideological radicalism, social and political unrest, and the growing threat of nuclear war are just a few global systemic risks.
What does the term ‘polycrisis’ mean?
Two definitions of the term polycrisis have been offered by academia. The Cascade Institute describes global polycrisis as any combination of three or more interrelated systemic dangerous events that have the capacity to result in a catastrophic and irreversible collapse of Earth’s natural and social systems. Meanwhile, the Institute of Development Studies describes polycrisis as the simultaneous occurrence of different crises (economic, environmental, political, and social, etc.) and their interaction with one another which ultimately increases their overall impact.
Most polycrises have multiple causes so is therefore no single solution which ultimately makes it even more difficult to deal with these using traditional methods.
This graph from the World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report 2024 illustrates the various connections between different global risks.
Source: Global Risks Report 2024
To understand the graph that illustrates the various connections between different global risks, let’s break it down:
- Each circle represents a different risk (economic downturn, climate change, cyber insecurity, etc.).
- The size of each circle illustrates the impact level of the risk.
- The lines that connect the circles show how one risk influences another.
- The colors of the circles represent categories:
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- Blue: Economic risks (e.g., debt, unemployment)
- Green: Environmental risks (e.g., pollution, biodiversity loss)
- Orange: Geopolitical risks (e.g., armed conflicts, terrorist attacks)
- Red: Societal risks (e.g., societal polarization, lack of economic opportunity)
- Purple: Technological risks (e.g., AI risks, cyber insecurity).
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It can be seen how certain risks, such as economic decline and societal polarization, are closely related to one another and impact upon numerous other risks, for example, environmental issues (green) such as biodiversity loss and pollution have connections with societal and economic problems.
So is polycrisis a theoretical model or is it actually happening?
The term was first used in the late 1990s when it was introduced by the French sociologist and complexity theorist, Edgar Morin, who, together with Anne Brigitte Kern, wrote the book “Homeland Earth: A Manifesto for a New Millennium”.
It was used to describe the current complex web of issues that our world is experiencing, including pandemics, wars, harsh weather events, energy shortages, and inflation.
Even though millions of people have lived in polycrisis conditions for centuries, many experts still consider this to be a new concept due to the number and severity of the interconnecting forces and the turmoil being caused.
Some characteristics of a polycrisis
Mathew Davies and Christopher Hobson from the Australian National University, Canberra, have suggested eight main characteristics of a polycrisis.
1. The simultaneity of crises
2. Emergent properties. The polycrisis has a bigger effect than the combined impact of its individual components.
3. One crisis can intensify or speed up another crisis.
For example, when the COVID-19 pandemic hit, factories were forced to shut down, workers had to stay at home, and the production of goods slowed down dramatically.
4. The lack of universally accepted definitions of crises. Different groups may define the same situation in different ways, which could ultimately lead to confusion and lack of proper action.
For example, some governments view climate change as an urgent global crisis that needs to be solved as quickly as possible, while some industries see this as a long-term issue or may not even take it into consideration at all.
5. No clear limits between crises. Various crises are not standalone events; rather, they are interrelated, merging into one another, making it challenging to tell where one crisis ends and another starts.
6. Feedback loops between crises.
For example, take separate issues such as climate change and global migration. Extreme weather, be it droughts or floods, can have a devastating impact on crops and households, ultimately forcing people to migrate, which in turn can put pressure on the places receiving migrants, and this later leads to economic strain or political tensions.
7. Conflicting stakeholder priorities. Various groups can have different views and thus react in different ways based on their own priorities and interests.
For example, when a country faces an energy crisis, the government can focus on keeping prices low for consumers, whereas businesses might worry about maintaining profits, and environmental groups may want to push for cleaner energy solutions.
8. Cross-purposes. Getting rid of one crisis can worsen another one.
For example, if a country faces an energy shortage, it might burn coal and oil to keep electricity flowing, which may solve the energy crisis in the short term, but at the same time, it negatively impacts the environment.
So is the world witnessing a polycrisis right now?
Experts have different opinions on whether we are already facing a polycrisis, or we could face one soon.
According to research from the Cascade Institute, the world is actually experiencing a polycrisis, and the situation is worsening.
Meanwhile, in its 2023 report on global risks, the World Economic Forum examines polycrisis in the context of mid-term possibilities, whereby current risks could combine to form a polycrisis by the end of the decade which will be centered on the scarcity of natural resources.
What can we do to deal with the consequences of a polycrisis’?
Experts believe there are several ways to deal with a polycrisis, including:
1. Acknowledge the limits of risk management – conventional risk assessment is less likely to detect emerging and unpredictable crises, which means it is important to remain flexible and be prepared for unforeseen risks.
2. Continually monitor activities – countries could consider regularly monitoring emerging risks and trends to predict the occurrence of possible crises before these turn into something more serious.
3. Maintain a robust response framework – governments and companies should have crisis response plans with concrete instructions and ensure people have sufficient skills to handle various scenarios.
4. Emphasize the importance of mental health – a prolonged crisis can impact upon mental health, which is why mental well-being should be among the top priorities so that signs of stress can be detected and the necessary help provided promptly.
5. Use systemic thinking – this involves handling a polycrisis by recognizing common stressors, learning how different crises relate, and preventing the cascading effects before they worsen.
Final word
The effects of polycrisis could impact on daily life in terms of inflation, supply chain disruptions, energy shortages, technological advances among others, and as these all begin to add up, the need to take urgent action, no matter how modest, becomes more evident.
One negative aspect of polycrises is that they might be here to stay but, on the positive side, with knowledge of their existence, coping mechanisms can be developed to deal with them.
