The International Rescue Committee (IRC) unveils its annual Emergency Watchlist, highlighting the 20 countries most likely to face escalating humanitarian crises in 2025. The top five crises are Sudan, occupied Palestinian territory, Myanmar, Syria, and South Sudan.
305 million people worldwide are in need of humanitarian support. Watchlist countries account for 82% of this figure, despite only comprising 11% of the global population. 77% of the world’s displaced are due to crises in Watchlist countries. Watchlist countries account for over 30% and counting of the world’s extremely poor.
This year’s Emergency Watchlist speaks to “A World Out of Balance,” as the catalyst for new crises and the obstacle in bringing them to heel.
The four deep-seated imbalances in the international system that drive crisis are:
- More conflict and less diplomacy are the most obvious and most dangerous symptoms of the world out of balance. There is a record 59 conflicts in 2023, the highest since World War II.
- Attacks on civilians and civilian infrastructure are increasingly central to battle strategy. The number of attacks on civilians by state and non-state armed groups around the globe has increased by 66% between 2013 and 2023, and 74% were in Watchlist countries.
- More carbon emissions and less support for people suffering from the climate crisis are the third imbalance. Watchlist countries contribute less than 4% of global CO2 emissions, but over one-third of all people made homeless or displaced by natural hazards over the past 5 years were in Watchlist countries.
- Finally, more wealth accumulation, and less poverty alleviation. On average, poverty levels in Watchlist countries are now almost 85% higher than they were in the mid-2000s, whereas they have fallen 37% in the rest of the world over the same period.
The IRC suggests an agenda for action in six categories
- Reform the humanitarian aid system, using cost-efficiency and cost-effectiveness tools to drive value for money.
- Relieve debt burdens, expand financing, and promote economic stability to address crisis drivers and promote shared prosperity.
- Improve civilian protection by reforming the U.N. Security Council to increase representation, and suspend the use of the veto in cases of mass atrocity.
- Ease civilian suffering by protecting humanitarian access, and ensuring aid can be safely delivered to those in need.
- Invest in climate adaptation and resilience to mitigate the impacts of climate shocks.
- Expand safe pathways and assistance for refugees to strengthen protection and inclusion.
David Miliband, President & CEO of the International Rescue Committee, said: “It is clear that “the world is on fire” is a daily reality for 100s of millions of people. This is the result of a world fundamentally out of balance. As a humanitarian agency, IRC’s job is to meet needs, but also call them out. This is the purpose of the Emergency Watchlist published. The concentration of extreme poverty is remarkable. The world is being cleaved into two camps: between those born in unstable conflict states, and those with a chance to make it in stable states. This is a trend that needs to be addressed for moral and strategic reasons. The moral case is that with more resources than ever before, they need to be used to help the world’s most vulnerable. The strategic case is that problems that start in Sudan or Syria do not stay there: instability spreads”.
“Business as usual will not reverse this trend. Civilians will continue to suffer the worst impacts of burgeoning conflict and risk perilous journeys if we don’t break with the status quo. The international community has both an incredible opportunity and responsibility to change the terms of humanitarian and diplomatic engagement in Watchlist countries. And while the challenges in these countries are complex, the IRC’s experience shows that there are ways to save lives, build resilience, and preserve the livelihoods of the most vulnerable.”
