Following the underwhelming outcomes of the 29th UN Climate Change Conference COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan, the pressure is mounting for the 2025 conference in Brazil to deliver tangible progress. Key expectations include setting new goals for reducing global warming, advancing decarbonization efforts, and increasing climate financing to empower developing nations to combat climate change.
Brazil faced an important “dress rehearsal” for COP30 in November when it hosted the G20 summit in Rio de Janeiro while holding the presidency of the group. The country achieved significant progress, particularly on social issues, including the establishment of a Global Alliance Against Hunger and Poverty, which has pledged billions of dollars to food distribution policies. Additionally, the summit’s final communiqué included a groundbreaking mention of taxing the ultra-rich.
However, the G20 climate agenda largely mirrored the gridlock experienced at COP29 when the failure to reach practical agreements left many disheartened. Efforts to keep global warming within the 1.5°C target have repeatedly hit roadblocks, underscoring the challenges of balancing economic interests with urgent environmental imperatives.
Brazil’s performance at the G20 highlighted its capacity to influence key global issues but also revealed the need for robust, cohesive leadership to tackle future challenges. This is particularly true for climate negotiations during which economic and environmental priorities often collide.
The shadow of geopolitical shifts
The task ahead becomes even more daunting in light of recent geopolitical changes. Donald Trump’s return to the U.S. presidency in January 2025 adds uncertainty to global climate goals. The Republican leader, a vocal critic of multilateral climate efforts, has called climate change a “hoax” and pledged to expand oil exploration during his campaign. His first term saw the U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, a decision later reversed by Joe Biden.
“Trump clearly opposes multilateral platforms. During the pandemic, he withdrew the U.S. from the World Health Organization,” Ana Saggioro Garcia, a Professor of International Relations at the Federal Rural University of Rio de Janeiro, explained. “He prefers bilateral negotiations that align with U.S. interests, which makes securing global consensus more challenging.”
The ultimate test
COP30 marks the third major opportunity for nations to review their greenhouse gas reduction targets since the landmark COP21 in Paris and COP26 in Glasgow. While COP29 yielded a post-2025 climate financing framework, its US$300 billion annual target was widely criticized by developing nations, who had advocated for commitments closer to US$1.3 trillion. Although this higher figure was referenced in the final text, the shared responsibility among public and private actors added layers of complexity to its implementation.
Brazil’s presidency at COP30 will play a pivotal role in bridging this financial gap by building a roadmap to scale climate funding to US$1.3 trillion by 2035. Incorporating private sources and voluntary contributions will require innovative financial strategies, making this a defining challenge for Brazil’s leadership.
Paulo Feldman, an economist and researcher at the University of São Paulo, emphasized that wealthier nations are often called upon to shoulder these investments due to their historical responsibility for the bulk of CO2 emissions over the past 170 years. However, he noted that emerging economies like China, India, and Russia have in recent years surpassed developed nations as the largest emitters.
“To address this, Brazil must pursue a unifying solution,” Feldman suggested. “All countries, regardless of income, should contribute to these efforts, with collective decision-making ensuring that resources are not controlled solely by wealthy nations.”
While the challenges of translating consensus into concrete action are immense, Brazil has a unique opportunity to lead by example. The country was the first to submit updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) for 2035, raising its greenhouse gas reduction target from 59% to 67% over the next 11 years.
It is believed COP30 will be a moment of reckoning, testing whether Brazil can navigate the complex intersection of economic, environmental, and geopolitical interests to drive meaningful progress. Success at the conference could solidify its role as a global climate leader and set the stage for transformative action in the years to come.
