As our planet’s weather approaches the El Niño phase, nations around the globe are hurriedly preparing to mitigate the possible effects of the anticipated catastrophic weather events, including floods and droughts. El Niño conditions are expected to significantly intensify over the winter season, according to monthly forecasts.
Researchers insist that this year appears to be of particular concern. It has been seven years since, in 2016, our planet achieved its highest annual temperature since records began which also happened to coincide with a strong El Niño hitting its peak intensity.
What is El Niño and La Niña?
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) refers to an unpredictably recurring change in winds and sea surface temperatures across the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean that has an impact on the climate of a large portion of the tropics and subtropics. ENSO features three phases:
- El Niño, or “the boy” in Spanish, is a rise in temperatures at the ocean’s surface that occurs in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. This natural climatic phenomenon takes place every two to seven years.
- La Niña, “the girl” in Spanish, is El Nino’s “cooler” opposite and is distinguished by ocean temperatures being lower than average.
- Neutral – neither the El Nino nor the La Nina condition is predominant. The neutral phase is marked by sea surface temperatures that are relatively close to the long-term average, usually within a range of +/- 0.5 °C.
El Niño and La Niña in 90 seconds
Maps illustrating surface temperature abnormalities in the Pacific Ocean amid an extreme La Niña (December 1988) and an El Niño (December 1997).
Source: Climate.gov
The socio-economic impacts of El Niño
According to one study, El Niño continuously decreases economic growth at the global level. For instance, its occurrences in 1982-83 and 1997-98 caused worldwide income losses of approximately US$4.1 trillion and US$5.7 trillion respectively.
Given the current attempts to cut greenhouse gas emissions, El Niño’s intensity is anticipated to inflict economic losses totaling US$84 trillion over the course of the twenty-first century.
The researchers’ findings indicate that El Niño could lead to catastrophic floods, droughts that cause crop losses, a drop in marine biodiversity, and an increase in the prevalence of tropical diseases.
Based on the latest research, the anticipated El Niño has the potential to affect the world economy with losses of up to US$3 trillion by 2029.
Governments in at-risk nations are currently trying to counteract the impact of El Niño. Peru has set aside US$1.06 billion to deal with the aftermath of El Niño while the Philippines, a nation prone to cyclones, has formed a special government team to deal with the expected effects.
El Niño impact on agriculture
El Niño has the potential to alter weather patterns causing droughts or an excessive amount of rain in certain areas. These circumstances may have an impact on agricultural efficiency, crop yields, and livestock which may result in a lack of food, and subsequently a rise in food costs.
El Niño impact on water resources
Since El Niño can change precipitation patterns, it can impact the water supply for drinking, irrigation, and hydropower energy generation.
El Niño economic impact
National economies may be impacted by lower agricultural productivity, trade and supply chain disruptions, rising commodity prices, and lower tourist rates.
El Niño impacts on health
The spread and frequency of vector-borne diseases such as malaria and dengue fever can be affected by changes to temperature and precipitation patterns. The spread of waterborne diseases such as Vibrio disease can also be facilitated by the disruption of water supplies.
Final word
We cannot deny the fact that El Niño can cause droughts, floods, and other catastrophic weather conditions which in turn impact not only ordinary people, but the overall socio-economic situation. This can seriously affect fisheries, agriculture, and water resources, ultimately resulting in food insecurity, economic losses, and health issues. This is why numerous governments are allocating enormous funds for the mitigation of the forecasted consequences of El Niño.
